A data-driven MLB betting system focused on long-term PROFIT and ROI — not win percentage.
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The first version established a baseline and confirmed that a value-based approach could be profitable.
After deeper analysis and trend refinement, the model improved accuracy and significantly increased returns.
These PROFITS are based on 1 Unit bets on every suggested value bet. Actual returns will vary based on your bet sizes and which bets you choose to take. Results cannot be guranteed. You’ll notice that losses outnumber wins in both models. That’s expected. The edge comes from identifying value in odds — PROFIT is the metric that matters.
I built the model by predicting the 'strength' of each team based on factors that I deemed indicative of performance. I then simulate the playing of the game 50,000 times to get a probability of each team winning. I then look for 'value'. I find value in 3 different pools of bets.
These bets were games where the model predicted no defined edge for either team. The model then looked for value in the odds.
These bets were games where the odds predicted a strong favourite and the model confirmed the edge to a LARGER margin. The model then looked for value in the odds.
When analyzing the odds, it was noted that odds makers were consistently mispricing certain games in certain ranges. The model then looked for value in the odds in these ranges.
So, whether you think PROFIT or ROI is the more important metric, the model is showing positive returns in all three pools. You can choose to bet on all three pools or just one or two of them. It’s up to you. YOU MAKE THE BETS.
Inspired by Jamie Cochrane and the concepts in Trading Bases, I set out to determine whether a structured, data-driven betting system could be profitable over the long term.
I quickly learned that understanding baseball and understanding betting markets are very different problems. To close that gap, I teamed up with Adam Guilbault.
Together, we focused on identifying mispriced odds using team performance, player metrics, historical trends, and contextual factors. The model is updated daily and refined continuously.
YOU make the choices. Bet all, some, or none of the suggested bets. YOU decide the dollar amounts — small or big. It’s all up to you.